Opening Track
The week in review
This week, the trade escalation seems to be winding down while we await the most important Fed decision in recent history
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Top of the Charts
Chart of the week | Targeted support for a targeted shock
The trade shock is real, although its effects are not evenly distributed. Following the latest escalation, our estimates suggest that roughly 5% of Canadian GDP and employment is directly exposed to the various tariffs on Canadian exports to the U.S. That share has been trending down over recent years, showing that the Canadian economy is moving away from sectors targeted by the Trump administration. It is also small enough to have a limited macroeconomic impact, but it does represent close to one million jobs and cannot be brushed aside.
Government support can make sense when a company was viable before an external shock and management has a credible plan to adjust. Assistance should be targeted, helping firms find new markets, redesign supply chains, and preserve specialized teams that will still be valuable after the immediate disruption passes.
Unfortunately, protectionist policies are here to stay. Support programs should be temporary, not prop up industries that are no longer viable in todays and tomorrow’s economy.
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