---
title: May 22, 2026 - Downbeat Canada
description: Canadian inflation remains under control while small business owners lack confidence
image: https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/images/og/OG_McMahon_1200x628_EN.jpg
---

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# Macro Playlist

 The economic ideas driving markets.

 Every week, Sébastien Mc Mahon and his team deliver their carefully selected economic analyses and market outlooks.

## May 22, 2026 - Downbeat Canada

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## Opening Track

The week in review

This week, pessimism reigns in Canada as small business owners are increasingly unlikely to invest and hire. The upside (if any) is that the Bank of Canada is unlikely to hike in 2026 given the disinflationary backdrop.

<iframe class="opening-video margin-bottom-36" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/p7KfgBEIzvA?si=Sn-CnZJbgpIPZl_L"></iframe>

[Download slides](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/Hebdo_20260522_EN.pdf)

<iframe style="border-radius: 12px; margin: 0px auto; display: block;" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" xml="lang" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/playlist/4ffEtbOVvGSPEhZyrdL6XT?utm_source=generator&amp;theme=0" width="560" height="352" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen loading="lazy" data-testid="embed-iframe"></iframe>

![](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/icones/vital_signs.svg)

## Top of the Charts

Chart of the Week | Canadian inflation isn’t re-accelerating

While U.S. inflation is picking up, Canada tells a different story.

Headline CPI came in at 2.8%, but ex‑food and energy dropped to 1.5%, a 5‑year low.

The chart shows why:  
Share \>5% → dropping around ~20%  
Share \<2% → steady around 50%

Inflation breadth is falling. That’s key. 

In an oil shock, central banks look at:  
Expectations → still anchored  
Breadth → moving in the right direction

So the BoC can likely look through the energy noise. But this isn’t cause for celebration, as it reflects weak demand.

Markets pricing two BoC hikes in 2026 feel ahead of the macro reality.

![Inflation breadth Canada clean EN](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hs-fs/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/Inflation%20breadth%20Canada%20clean%20EN.png?width=2000&name=Inflation%20breadth%20Canada%20clean%20EN.png)

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## New Releases

Read our latest publications

### Monthly Macro & Strategy - May 2026

 Should I Stay or Should I Go: Central banks, supply shocks, and the art of choosing your trouble 

[Read here](https://files.ia.ca/-/media/files/gestion-mondiale-dactifs/content/2026/20260507/2026-05_monthly-macro-strategy_en.pdf)

### White Paper - April 2026

 Paranoid Android: Revolution or transition? What research actually tells us about AI and the labour market 

[Read here](https://files.ia.ca/-/media/files/gestion-mondiale-dactifs/content/2026/20260414/2026-04_ai_en.pdf)

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## Featured on Air

Quick access to our latest media appearances

### iA Financial Group Announces Sébastien Mc Mahon’s Expanded Role as Chief Economist

[Watch here](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/press-releases/2026/05/19/ia-financial-group-announces-sebastien-mc-mahons-expanded-role-as-chief-economist/)

<iframe style="border-radius: 12px; margin: 0px auto; display: block;" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" xml="lang" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/playlist/4ffEtbOVvGSPEhZyrdL6XT?utm_source=generator&amp;theme=0" width="560" height="352" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen loading="lazy" data-testid="embed-iframe"></iframe>

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## Sébastien Mc Mahon

Chief Economist, iA Financial Group

![](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/images/Etienne_Bergeron.png)

## Étienne Bergeron

Economist, iA Financial Group

[About the team](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/about-us)

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