Opening Track
The week in review
This week, pessimism reigns in Canada as small business owners are increasingly unlikely to invest and hire. The upside (if any) is that the Bank of Canada is unlikely to hike in 2026 given the disinflationary backdrop.
Download slides
Top of the Charts
Chart of the Week | Canadian inflation isn’t re-accelerating
While U.S. inflation is picking up, Canada tells a different story.
Headline CPI came in at 2.8%, but ex‑food and energy dropped to 1.5%, a 5‑year low.
The chart shows why:
Share >5% → dropping around ~20%
Share <2% → steady around 50%
Inflation breadth is falling. That’s key.
In an oil shock, central banks look at:
Expectations → still anchored
Breadth → moving in the right direction
So the BoC can likely look through the energy noise. But this isn’t cause for celebration, as it reflects weak demand.
Markets pricing two BoC hikes in 2026 feel ahead of the macro reality.
New Releases
Read our latest publications
Featured on Air
Quick access to our latest media appearances
iA Financial Group Announces Sébastien Mc Mahon’s Expanded Role as Chief Economist
Watch here
