May 29, 2026 - Earnings and recessions

Opening Track

The week in review

This week, Canada enters a "technical recession" as economic growth disappoints in Q1. Meanwhile, earnings expectations are revised higher globally, pushing markets to new heights.

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Top of the Charts

Chart of the Week | The gasoline tax cut isn’t ending up in your pocket

On April 14, the Carney government announced a 10-cent-per-litre cut to the gasoline tax to support Canadian households’ purchasing power. The measure, in effect from April 20 to September 7, 2026, will cost taxpayers $2.4 billion.

As is often the case, this type of measure is largely absorbed along the distribution chain. Prices remain elevated… and the benefit does not fully reach consumers.

Recent data confirm this: prices at the pump continue to move closely in line with crude oil prices. The tax cut itself is hard to detect in what households are actually paying.