--- title: June 12 2026 - Stay the course description: This week, the Bank of Canada stays the course and we don't expect any fireworks on Canada Day image: https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/images/og/OG_McMahon_1200x628_EN.jpg --- [![iA Groupe financier - Facebook](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/Commun/logos/inverse/logo-i-a-horizontal-inverse-fr.png)](https://ia.ca/individuals) Toggle navigation [Macro playlist](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/september-11-2026-eye-for-an-eye) [About us](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/about-us) [Subscribe to the newsletter](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/newsletter-subscription) [fr](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/12-juin-2026-garder-le-cap) # Macro Playlist The economic ideas driving markets. Every week, Sébastien Mc Mahon and his team deliver their carefully selected economic analyses and market outlooks. ## June 12 2026 - Stay the course x Partager l'édition via Copy link LinkedIn X ![](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/icones/animated_images.svg) ## Opening Track The week in review This week: the Bank of Canada stays the course, the new Fed Chair faces a bumpy road ahead, and no fireworks are expected on the CUSMA front on July 1. [Download slides](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/Hebdo_20260612_EN.pdf) ![](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/icones/vital_signs.svg) ## Top of the Charts Chart of the Week | Is Canada in a technical recession? Yes, real GDP has contracted for two consecutive quarters. On paper, that checks the box for a “technical recession.” But in reality, we’re a long way from what we usually call a recession. A true recession comes with broad-based deterioration: job losses, falling incomes, and a sharp pullback in production and consumption. That’s clearly not what we’re seeing. Instead, the economy looks to be in transition. - Defense spending has slowed sharply after a surge in late 2025 - Employment rebounded in May after a few softer months - Household consumption is holding up - Outlooks are improving in both manufacturing and services In short, there’s volatility — but no real breakdown. And the magnitude matters: the cumulative decline in GDP over the past two quarters is just 0.3%. Compare that to: - 1.1% in 1975 - 5.3% in 1982 - 3.4% in 1991 - 4.4% in 2009 Business confidence is weak and population growth has stalled. But even so, it is far too early to call the recent period a recession. ![12 juin 2026 EN](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hs-fs/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/12%20juin%202026%20EN.jpg?width=1292&height=741&name=12%20juin%202026%20EN.jpg) ![](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/icones/brand_awareness.svg) ## New Releases Read our latest publications ### Monthly Macro & Strategy - June Edition I will survive : CUSMA renegotiation and Canada’s push for economic sovereignty [Read here](https://files.ia.ca/-/media/files/gestion-mondiale-dactifs/content/2026/20260603/2026-06-monthly-macro-strategy-en.pdf) ## Soundtrack This month, we welcome Gloria Gaynor to the Macro Playlist (available on Spotify) ![](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/icones/cards_star.svg) ## Featured on Air Quick access to our latest media appearances ### Overweight equities, focus on sector selection BNN Bloomberg, June 10 2026 [Watch here](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/shows/the-close/2026/06/10/overweight-equities-focus-on-sector-selection-mcmahon/) ### Entrée en bourse historique de SpaceX (in French) Tout un matin, June 12 2026 [Listen here](https://ici.radio-canada.ca/ohdio/premiere/emissions/tout-un-matin/segments/rattrapage/2401769/entree-en-bourse-historique-spacex-entrevue-avec-sebastien-mcmahon) ![](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/images/Sebastien_McMahon.png) ## Sébastien Mc Mahon Chief Economist, iA Financial Group ![](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/images/Etienne_Bergeron.png) ## Étienne Bergeron Economist, iA Financial Group [About the team](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/about-us) ## Archives 2026 September - [September 11, 2026 - Eye for an eye](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/september-11-2026-eye-for-an-eye) - [September 4, 2026 - Risk management](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/september-4-2026-) August - [August 28, 2026 - Breaking point](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/august-28-2026-breaking-point) - [August 21, 2026 - The U.S. Treasury Under Pressure](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/august-21-2026-the-u.s.-treasury-under-pressure) - [August 14, 2026 - Negotiation Blitz](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/august-14-2026-negotiation-blitz) - [August 7, 2026 - Course adjustment](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/august-7-2026-course-adjustment) July - [July 31, 2026 - Loss of credibility](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/july-31-2026-loss-of-credibility) - [July 24, 2026 - Oil and Tariff](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/oil-and-tariffs) - [July 17, 2026 - Inflation surprise](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/july-17-2026-inflation-surprise) - [July 10th, 2026 - War and Peace](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/july-10th-2026-war-and-peace) - [July 3rd, 2026 - Trump's world](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/july-3rd-2026-) June - [June 26, 2026 - The fall of the loonie](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/june-26-2026-a-hike-in-july) - [19 June 2026 - A new era](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/19-june-2026-a-new-era) - [June 12 2026 - Stay the course](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/june-12-2026-stay-the-course) - [June 5, 2026 - Recalibration at the BoC](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/june-5-2026-recalibration-at-the-boc) May - [May 29, 2026 - Earnings and recessions](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/may-29-2026-earnings-and-recessions) - [May 22, 2026 - Downbeat Canada](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/may-22-2026-downbeat-canada) - [May 15, 2026 - Inflation and AI](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/week-ending-may-15-2026) ![mail](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/icones/mail.svg) ## Stay informed Get the Macro Playlist delivered straight to your inbox every week and stay up to date on the trends shaping the markets. [Subscribe to the newsletter](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/newsletter-subscription) | [Follow us](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/about-us) | | --- | | [français](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/12-juin-2026-garder-le-cap) | | --- | © 2026 Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc. – iA Financial Group. All rights reserved. ```json { "@context" : "https://schema.org", "@type" : "BlogPosting", "author" : { "@type" : "Person", "name" : "Sébastien Mc Mahon", "url" : "https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/author/sébastien-mc-mahon" }, "dateModified" : "2026-06-18T22:06:22.813Z", "datePublished" : "2026-06-12T15:41:27.000Z", "headline" : "June 12 2026 - Stay the course", "image" : [ "https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/images/og/OG_McMahon_1200x628_EN.jpg" ], "mainEntityOfPage" : { "@id" : "https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/june-12-2026-stay-the-course", "@type" : "WebPage" }, "publisher" : { "@type" : "Organization", "logo" : { "@type" : "ImageObject", "url" : "https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/iafg-bimi%20300x300.png.png" }, "name" : "Industrielle Alliance, Assurance et services financiers inc et ses filiales." } } ```