May 15, 2026 - Inflation and AI

Opening Track

The week in review

This week, U.S. inflation is picking up steam as a new Fed chair takes office. We also explain why forecasts for the use of artificial intelligence through 2030 point to a significant rise in prices, creating both risks and opportunities.

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Top of the Charts

Chart of the Week | Inflation is back, and it doesn’t look good

Markets got a dose of déjà vu all over again this week.

Inflation is back, and it’s accelerating. PPI is up 6%, CPI is nearing 4%, and even new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s favored measure, trimmed mean inflation, is moving higher.

And the backdrop is making it worse:

• Aggregate demand still fueled by a large fiscal deficit
• AI capex keeping the economy running hot
• Tariffs still pushing through prices
• Gasoline up ~40%… sealing the deal

Bottom line: Chair Warsh will enter his first FOMC meeting on June 16–17 with headline CPI at 4%+.

Brutal setup, not exactly an easy start for the new Chair.