---
title: July 17, 2026 - Inflation surprise
description: This week, inflation surprises on the downside in the U.S. and the Bank of Canada stays on the sidelines.
image: https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/images/og/OG_McMahon_1200x628_EN.jpg
---

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# Macro Playlist

 The economic ideas driving markets.

 Every week, Sébastien Mc Mahon and his team deliver their carefully selected economic analyses and market outlooks.

## July 17, 2026 - Inflation surprise

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## Opening Track

The week in review

This week, inflation surprises on the downside in the U.S. and the Bank of Canada stays on the sidelines.

<iframe class="opening-video margin-bottom-36" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/TzLYvmBr_PQ?si=bYKmeeVvTkV6QsK-"></iframe>

[Download slides](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/Hebdo_20260717_EN.pdf)

<iframe style="border-radius: 12px; margin: 0px auto; display: block;" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" xml="lang" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/playlist/4ffEtbOVvGSPEhZyrdL6XT?utm_source=generator&amp;theme=0" width="560" height="352" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen loading="lazy" data-testid="embed-iframe"></iframe>

![](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/icones/vital_signs.svg)

## Top of the Charts

Chart of the Week | Canada’s Labour Market Is Stronger Than It Looks

Last Friday, Statistics Canada reported that the Canadian economy added 18,000 jobs in June, following a much stronger gain in May. At first glance, the picture appears mixed: despite the recent rebound, total employment remains slightly below where it started the year.

But, that headline figure masks an important reality.

As the chart illustrates, Canada's population growth has slowed dramatically due to changes in immigration policy. With the population now shrinking, it is only natural that job creation has slowed as well. In this environment, the number of jobs created is becoming a less informative indicator than the unemployment rate.

And the unemployment rate tells a more encouraging story. After peaking at 7.0% in the third quarter of 2025, it averaged 6.7% in the second quarter of 2026 and fell to 6.5% in June. This points to a gradual improvement in labour market conditions across the country.

Despite modest economic growth, the stabilization of the labour market is a positive signal for the Canadian economy. The status quo in Canada–U.S. trade relations, despite ongoing noise surrounding bridges or the USMCA renewal process, is certainly helping. Low policy rates, which are expected to remain in place for the coming months, continue to support economic activity. Finally, the Carney government's investment program is boosting growth and improving the outlook for Canadian businesses.

![Pop vs Urate\_EN](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hs-fs/hubfs/Pop%20vs%20Urate_EN.png?width=800&height=600&name=Pop%20vs%20Urate_EN.png)

![](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/icones/brand_awareness.svg)

## New Releases

Read our latest publications

### Monthly Macro & Strategy - July 2026

 «All Around the World» - An overview of the global macroeconomic landscape 

[Read here](https://files.ia.ca/-/media/files/gestion-mondiale-dactifs/content/2026/20260703/2026-07-_monthly-macro-strategy_fr.pdf)

## Soundtrack

This week, we go all around the world with Oasis in the Macro Playlist

<iframe class="sound-track-video" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/bdT8ixdxPX4?si=WzeZOvLr5cHilnby"></iframe>

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## Featured on Air

Quick access to our latest media appearances

<iframe style="border-radius: 12px; margin: 0px auto; display: block;" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" xml="lang" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/playlist/4ffEtbOVvGSPEhZyrdL6XT?utm_source=generator&amp;theme=0" width="560" height="352" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen loading="lazy" data-testid="embed-iframe"></iframe>

![](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/images/Sebastien_McMahon.png)

## Sébastien Mc Mahon

Chief Economist, iA Financial Group

![](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/images/Etienne_Bergeron.png)

## Étienne Bergeron

Economist, iA Financial Group

[About the team](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/about-us)

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