July 10th, 2026 - War and Peace

Opening Track

The week in review

This week, hostilities resume in the Middle-East

Top of the Charts

Chart of the Week | The Strait of Hormuz Comes Back to Life

Before hostilities resumed this week, the Strait of Hormuz was showing clear signs of recovery. According to our chart, shipping volumes have rebounded from nearly zero in the spring to about 40% of pre-conflict levels by the end of June, following the peace agreement between the United States and Iran. Although volumes have fallen significantly this week, markets remain relatively unconcerned and continue to expect a gradual normalization process.

This improvement has already had a tangible impact: oil prices have declined, reducing the risk of physical shortages and renewed inflationary pressure. The most pessimistic scenarios for the global economy now appear far less likely than they did just a few weeks ago.

That said, this week’s events highlight the extent of the uncertainties that remain. In particular, there is still no consensus on Iran’s future role in managing the Strait. Some Iranian officials have floated the idea of a new governance structure, while the United States rejects the notion of tolls or restrictions on navigation. The balance of power in the Middle East and OPEC’s strategy also remain key factors to watch.

These grey areas justify maintaining a geopolitical risk premium in oil prices. But unlike an energy-shock scenario, this premium appears consistent with a global economy that remains on solid footing.