---
title: July 10th, 2026 - War and Peace
description: This week, hostilities resume in the Middle-East
image: https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/images/og/OG_McMahon_1200x628_EN.jpg
---

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# Macro Playlist

 The economic ideas driving markets.

 Every week, Sébastien Mc Mahon and his team deliver their carefully selected economic analyses and market outlooks.

## July 10th, 2026 - War and Peace

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## Opening Track

The week in review

This week, hostilities resume in the Middle-East

<iframe class="opening-video margin-bottom-36" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/3zo9eB5tJWA?si=F3EHlAXrESKmZIug" "></iframe>

[Download slides](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/Hebdo_20260710_EN.pdf)

<iframe style="border-radius: 12px; margin: 0px auto; display: block;" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" xml="lang" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/playlist/4ffEtbOVvGSPEhZyrdL6XT?utm_source=generator&amp;theme=0" width="560" height="352" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen loading="lazy" data-testid="embed-iframe"></iframe>

![](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/icones/vital_signs.svg)

## Top of the Charts

Chart of the Week | The Strait of Hormuz Comes Back to Life

Before hostilities resumed this week, the Strait of Hormuz was showing clear signs of recovery. According to our chart, shipping volumes have rebounded from nearly zero in the spring to about 40% of pre-conflict levels by the end of June, following the peace agreement between the United States and Iran. Although volumes have fallen significantly this week, markets remain relatively unconcerned and continue to expect a gradual normalization process.

This improvement has already had a tangible impact: oil prices have declined, reducing the risk of physical shortages and renewed inflationary pressure. The most pessimistic scenarios for the global economy now appear far less likely than they did just a few weeks ago.

That said, this week’s events highlight the extent of the uncertainties that remain. In particular, there is still no consensus on Iran’s future role in managing the Strait. Some Iranian officials have floated the idea of a new governance structure, while the United States rejects the notion of tolls or restrictions on navigation. The balance of power in the Middle East and OPEC’s strategy also remain key factors to watch.

These grey areas justify maintaining a geopolitical risk premium in oil prices. But unlike an energy-shock scenario, this premium appears consistent with a global economy that remains on solid footing.

![2026-07-10 - EN](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hs-fs/hubfs/2026-07-10%20-%20EN.jpg?width=800&height=580&name=2026-07-10%20-%20EN.jpg)

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## New Releases

Read our latest publications

### Monthly Macro & Strategy - July 2026

 «All Around the World» - An overview of the global macroeconomic landscape 

[Read here](https://files.ia.ca/-/media/files/gestion-mondiale-dactifs/content/2026/20260703/2026-07-_monthly-macro-strategy_en.pdf)

## Soundtrack

This week, we go all around the world with Oasis in the Macro Playlist

<iframe class="sound-track-video" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/bdT8ixdxPX4?si=WzeZOvLr5cHilnby"></iframe>

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## Featured on Air

Quick access to our latest media appearances

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![](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/images/Sebastien_McMahon.png)

## Sébastien Mc Mahon

Chief Economist, iA Financial Group

![](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/images/Etienne_Bergeron.png)

## Étienne Bergeron

Economist, iA Financial Group

[About the team](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/about-us)

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