---
title: July 31, 2026 - Loss of credibility
description: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh fails his communication test while Microsoft and Amazon rekindle market enthusiasm.
image: https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/images/og/OG_McMahon_1200x628_EN.jpg
---

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# Macro Playlist

 The economic ideas driving markets.

 Every week, Sébastien Mc Mahon and his team deliver their carefully selected economic analyses and market outlooks.

## July 31, 2026 - Loss of credibility

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## Opening Track

The week in review

This week, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh fails his communication test while Microsoft and Amazon rekindle the market's enthusiasm

<iframe class="opening-video margin-bottom-36" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ePAYBC-uyqs?si=wRASThAPcIn6LYhh"></iframe>

[Download slides](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/Hebdo_20260731_EN.pdf)

<iframe style="border-radius: 12px; margin: 0px auto; display: block;" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" xml="lang" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/playlist/4ffEtbOVvGSPEhZyrdL6XT?utm_source=generator&amp;theme=0" width="560" height="352" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen loading="lazy" data-testid="embed-iframe"></iframe>

![](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/icones/vital_signs.svg)

## Top of the Charts

Chart of the week | Confidence is holding up in Canada

Canadian business confidence is improving, despite the noise coming from Washington.

In July, the CFIB’s 12-month confidence index reached 58.3, bringing it back close to its average of recent years. Even manufacturing, one of the sectors most exposed to trade tensions, improved to 53.7.

Why does this matter? Because business confidence is likely THE macro variable to watch in 2026.

If business leaders keep moving forward, this could support investment, expansion plans and hiring, helping the Canadian economy regain some speed over the coming quarters.

The next test will be important: these data were collected before last week’s new U.S. tariff announcements linked to Section 338.

But for now, the message is clear: even in a highly uncertain environment, Canadian businesses seem to be finding ways to stay the course.

![CFIB Total + Manufacturing EN](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hs-fs/hubfs/CFIB%20Total%20+%20Manufacturing%20EN.png?width=1809&height=962&name=CFIB%20Total%20+%20Manufacturing%20EN.png)

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## Featured on Air

Quick access to our latest media appearances

### 'I'd rather be independent': Trump on CUSMA

 BNN Bloomberg – July 29, 2026 

[View here](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/shows/the-close/2026/07/29/id-rather-be-independent-trump-on-cusma/)

### Canadian, U.S. markets drop as oil prices rise amid continued Middle East fighting

 The Canadian Press - July 29, 2026 

[Read here](https://www.thecanadianpressnews.ca/business/canadian-u-s-markets-drop-as-oil-prices-rise-amid-continued-middle-east-fighting/article_ef565ca8-1b39-560b-b6f9-017e60c473a9.html)

### TSX rises as oil prices fall and geopolitical tensions ease

 Investment Executive - July 27, 2026 

[Read here](https://www.investmentexecutive.com/news/markets/tsx-rises-as-oil-prices-fall-and-geopolitical-tensions-ease/)

<iframe style="border-radius: 12px; margin: 0px auto; display: block;" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" xml="lang" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/playlist/4ffEtbOVvGSPEhZyrdL6XT?utm_source=generator&amp;theme=0" width="560" height="352" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen loading="lazy" data-testid="embed-iframe"></iframe>

![](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/images/Sebastien_McMahon.png)

## Sébastien Mc Mahon

Chief Economist, iA Financial Group

![](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/images/Etienne_Bergeron.png)

## Étienne Bergeron

Economist, iA Financial Group

[About the team](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/about-us)

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