Macro Playlist

In recent months, U.S. tariff pressure appeared to be easing. After exceeding US$30 billion per month at the end of 2025, U.S. government customs duties fell to US$23.6 billion in June 2026.

This decline coincides with the Supreme Court’s invalidation of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), a decision that removed an important trade policy lever from the White House.
This raised hopes for a gradual return to a more predictable trade environment.

That respite, however, ended with last night’s announcement of new tariffs on Canada. Washington is now turning to Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, a rarely invoked authority that could theoretically allow duties of up to 50% on countries whose policies are deemed discriminatory toward U.S. products.

This route could allow the U.S. administration to regain part of the authority it lost with the cancellation of the IEEPA tariffs. As long as courts deem it legal, it is likely to remain in Washington’s toolkit for keeping pressure on its trading partners.

For Canada, the issue goes beyond the tariffs themselves, whose scope remains limited. The greater threat to the Canadian economy is the return of uncertainty. The fact that the CUSMA exemption does not apply to this new measure is a reminder that the agreement appears increasingly fragile. Exporters, which had begun to regain some visibility, must now consider the possibility of a renewed trade escalation with their largest economic partner.