---
title: September 25, 2026 - Back in the driver seat
description: This week, the bond market is settling comfortably into the driver's seat
image: https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/images/og/OG_McMahon_1200x628_EN.jpg
---

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# Macro Playlist

 The economic ideas driving markets.

 Every week, Sébastien Mc Mahon and his team deliver their carefully selected economic analyses and market outlooks.

<https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/september-18-2026-kevin-warsh-takes-action>

## September 25, 2026 - Back in the driver seat

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## Opening Track

The week in review

This week, the bond market is settling comfortably into the driver's seat

<iframe class="opening-video margin-bottom-36" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/nKvOUXU7amA?si=ip_ERgS7NagtmRP3"></iframe>

[Download slides](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/Hebdo_20260925_EN.pdf)

<iframe style="border-radius: 12px; margin: 0px auto; display: block;" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" xml="lang" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/playlist/4ffEtbOVvGSPEhZyrdL6XT?utm_source=generator&amp;theme=0" width="560" height="352" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen loading="lazy" data-testid="embed-iframe"></iframe>

![](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/icones/vital_signs.svg)

## Top of the Charts

Chart of the week

In the next few weeks, the federal government will table a budget focused on investment. Several measures are already on the table, including the Productivity Mega-Deduction, which is expected to cost more than $30 billion over five years. The challenge will be to avoid undermining Canada’s fiscal credibility, as one of the few countries that continues to hold an AAA credit rating.

That makes it essential to examine the debt question. The picture changes considerably depending on the measure used. Canada’s gross debt stands at 114% of GDP, a high level. By contrast, net debt—which accounts for assets held by the government, notably those of public pension plans—is around 10% of GDP. But this comparison is debated. The assets of these plans are intended to fund future benefits and cannot be used to repay public debt or finance current spending. Conversely, gross debt does not account for the real value of these assets. Having well-funded pension plans is a valuable advantage that many countries do not enjoy.

The reality lies somewhere between these two measures. Canada compares favourably with several G7 countries, but the picture is less favourable when it is compared with other AAA-rated countries. Maintaining this rating provides clear benefits, including lower borrowing costs. The Carney government will need to pair its investment ambitions with credible fiscal guardrails to convince investors and rating agencies that the public-finance trajectory remains sound.

![Debt % of GDP g7 + AAA - EN\_1](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hs-fs/hubfs/Debt%20%25%20of%20GDP%20g7%20+%20AAA%20-%20EN_1.png?width=800&height=600&name=Debt%20%25%20of%20GDP%20g7%20+%20AAA%20-%20EN_1.png)

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## Featured on Air

Quick access to our latest media appearances

### Retail sales month-over-month fall 0.7% in July

 BNN Bloomberg – September 24, 2026 

[Watch here](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/shows/the-street/2026/09/24/retail-sales-month-over-month-fall-07-in-july/)

### Why Canada-EU ties matter for advisors

 Wealth professional – September 23, 2026 

[Read here](https://www.wealthprofessional.ca/news/industry-news/why-canada-eu-ties-matter-for-advisors/393596)

<iframe style="border-radius: 12px; margin: 0px auto; display: block;" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" xml="lang" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/playlist/4ffEtbOVvGSPEhZyrdL6XT?utm_source=generator&amp;theme=0" width="560" height="352" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen loading="lazy" data-testid="embed-iframe"></iframe>

![](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/images/Sebastien_McMahon.png)

## Sébastien Mc Mahon

Chief Economist, iA Financial Group

![](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/images/Etienne_Bergeron.png)

## Étienne Bergeron

Economist, iA Financial Group

[About the team](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/about-us)

## Archives

 2026

 September

- [September 25, 2026 - Back in the driver seat](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/september-25-2026-back-in-the-driver-seat)
- [September 18, 2026 - Kevin Warsh Takes Action](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/september-18-2026-kevin-warsh-takes-action)
- [September 11, 2026 - Eye for an eye](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/september-11-2026-eye-for-an-eye)
- [September 4, 2026 - Risk management](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/september-4-2026-)

 August

- [August 28, 2026 - Breaking point](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/august-28-2026-breaking-point)
- [August 21, 2026 - The U.S. Treasury Under Pressure](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/august-21-2026-the-u.s.-treasury-under-pressure)
- [August 14, 2026 - Negotiation Blitz](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/august-14-2026-negotiation-blitz)
- [August 7, 2026 - Course adjustment](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/august-7-2026-course-adjustment)

 July

- [July 31, 2026 - Loss of credibility](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/july-31-2026-loss-of-credibility)
- [July 24, 2026 - Oil and Tariff](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/oil-and-tariffs)
- [July 17, 2026 - Inflation surprise](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/july-17-2026-inflation-surprise)
- [July 10th, 2026 - War and Peace](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/july-10th-2026-war-and-peace)
- [July 3rd, 2026 - Trump's world](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/july-3rd-2026-)

 June

- [June 26, 2026 - The fall of the loonie](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/june-26-2026-a-hike-in-july)
- [19 June 2026 - A new era](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/19-june-2026-a-new-era)
- [June 12 2026 - Stay the course](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/june-12-2026-stay-the-course)
- [June 5, 2026 - Recalibration at the BoC](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/june-5-2026-recalibration-at-the-boc)

 May

- [May 29, 2026 - Earnings and recessions](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/may-29-2026-earnings-and-recessions)
- [May 22, 2026 - Downbeat Canada](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/may-22-2026-downbeat-canada)
- [May 15, 2026 - Inflation and AI](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/week-ending-may-15-2026)

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