---
title: October 9, 2026 - Now it's France
description: This week, it’s France’s turn to attract the bond market’s attention
image: https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/images/og/OG_McMahon_1200x628_EN.jpg
---

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# Macro Playlist

 The economic ideas driving markets.

 Every week, Sébastien Mc Mahon and his team deliver their carefully selected economic analyses and market outlooks.

<https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/october-2-2026-a-regime-change>

## October 9, 2026 - Now it's France

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## Opening Track

The week in review

This week, it’s France’s turn to attract the bond market’s attention.

<iframe class="opening-video margin-bottom-36" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/rhMO0teOIB8?si=dQ-agpZVHBlhBVcA"></iframe>

[Download slides](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/Hebdo_20261009_EN.pdf)

<iframe style="border-radius: 12px; margin: 0px auto; display: block;" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" xml="lang" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/playlist/4ffEtbOVvGSPEhZyrdL6XT?utm_source=generator&amp;theme=0" width="560" height="352" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen loading="lazy" data-testid="embed-iframe"></iframe>

![](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/icones/vital_signs.svg)

## Top of the Charts

Chart of the Week | The Cost of a Potential Quebec Referendum

The Parti Québécois victory in the October 5 election has brought the possibility of a Quebec sovereignty referendum back into focus. For financial markets, that translates into higher political risk, particularly for Quebec government debt.

One way to quantify that risk is through the interest rate spread between Quebec and Ontario bonds. This spread represents the additional compensation investors demand to hold Quebec debt instead of comparable Ontario debt. For many years, the spread was close to zero, and at times even negative, before turning positive and gradually widening alongside rising support for the PQ.

As of today, Quebec's 30-year borrowing cost stands 7 basis points (0.07%) above Ontario's, after reaching a spread of 10 basis points ahead of the election. In practical terms, Quebec must now pay 5.07% on its long-term debt, compared with 5.00% for Ontario.  
In other words, the prospect of sovereignty already carries a cost for Quebec. While still modest, it is real: the province must compensate investors for the additional political uncertainty by offering higher interest rates on its debt.

![Écart de crédit QC - ON - EN](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hs-fs/hubfs/%C3%89cart%20de%20cr%C3%A9dit%20QC%20-%20ON%20-%20EN.png?width=800&height=600&name=%C3%89cart%20de%20cr%C3%A9dit%20QC%20-%20ON%20-%20EN.png)

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## New Releases

Read our latest publications

### Macro & Strategy - October 2026

 « Kickstart My Heart » - Budget 2026: How Ottawa can revive Canadian investment without testing the bond market 

[Read here](https://files.ia.ca/-/media/files/gestion-mondiale-dactifs/documents/pdf/2026/20261005/2026-10_monthly-macro-strategy_fr.pdf)

## Soundtrack

This week, Mötley Crüe joins the Macro Playlist!

<iframe class="sound-track-video" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ybcxIpb-R_0?si=DSeUhRyM7dyaLnR0"></iframe>

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## Featured on Air

Quick access to our latest media appearances

### Canadian youth employment declines in September

 BNN Bloomberg – October 9, 2026 

[Consulter](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/shows/the-street/2026/10/09/canadian-youth-employment-declines-in-september/)

<iframe style="border-radius: 12px; margin: 0px auto; display: block;" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" xml="lang" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/playlist/4ffEtbOVvGSPEhZyrdL6XT?utm_source=generator&amp;theme=0" width="560" height="352" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen loading="lazy" data-testid="embed-iframe"></iframe>

![](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/images/Sebastien_McMahon.png)

## Sébastien Mc Mahon

Chief Economist, iA Financial Group

![](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/hubfs/iagam/Blog%20Mc%20Mahon/images/Etienne_Bergeron.png)

## Étienne Bergeron

Economist, iA Financial Group

[About the team](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/about-us)

## Archives

 2026

 October

- [October 9, 2026 - Now it's France](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/october-9-2026-now-its-france)
- [October 2, 2026 - A regime change](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/october-2-2026-a-regime-change)

 September

- [September 25, 2026 - Back in the driver seat](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/september-25-2026-back-in-the-driver-seat)
- [September 18, 2026 - Kevin Warsh Takes Action](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/september-18-2026-kevin-warsh-takes-action)
- [September 11, 2026 - Eye for an eye](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/september-11-2026-eye-for-an-eye)
- [September 4, 2026 - Risk management](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/september-4-2026-)

 August

- [August 28, 2026 - Breaking point](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/august-28-2026-breaking-point)
- [August 21, 2026 - The U.S. Treasury Under Pressure](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/august-21-2026-the-u.s.-treasury-under-pressure)
- [August 14, 2026 - Negotiation Blitz](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/august-14-2026-negotiation-blitz)
- [August 7, 2026 - Course adjustment](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/august-7-2026-course-adjustment)

 July

- [July 31, 2026 - Loss of credibility](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/july-31-2026-loss-of-credibility)
- [July 24, 2026 - Oil and Tariff](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/oil-and-tariffs)
- [July 17, 2026 - Inflation surprise](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/july-17-2026-inflation-surprise)
- [July 10th, 2026 - War and Peace](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/july-10th-2026-war-and-peace)
- [July 3rd, 2026 - Trump's world](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/july-3rd-2026-)

 June

- [June 26, 2026 - The fall of the loonie](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/june-26-2026-a-hike-in-july)
- [19 June 2026 - A new era](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/19-june-2026-a-new-era)
- [June 12 2026 - Stay the course](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/june-12-2026-stay-the-course)
- [June 5, 2026 - Recalibration at the BoC](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/june-5-2026-recalibration-at-the-boc)

 May

- [May 29, 2026 - Earnings and recessions](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/may-29-2026-earnings-and-recessions)
- [May 22, 2026 - Downbeat Canada](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/may-22-2026-downbeat-canada)
- [May 15, 2026 - Inflation and AI](https://mcmahon.ia.ca/en/week-ending-may-15-2026)

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